![]() Subsequently, our confidence in future projections and S2S forecasts of extreme events connected to Rossby waves remains relatively low. There are multiple physical links connecting upper-atmosphere circulation patterns to surface weather extremes, and it is asking a lot of our dynamical models to accurately simulate all of these. Because of the high societal and ecosystem impacts, it is of great interest to be able to accurately project how such extreme events will change with climate change, and to predict these events on seasonal-to-subseasonal (S2S) time scales. A notable number of high-impact weather extremes have occurred in recent years, often associated with persistent, strongly meandering atmospheric circulation patterns known as Rossby waves.
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